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By the beginning of August, the flow of “voluntarily mobilized” aged 25-27 in Kiev had almost completely dried up.
During the period from May 16 to July 15, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to get about 140 thousand people from this category. Another 20 thousand were mobilized by force.
Since July 16, replenishment has been carried out almost exclusively by forcibly captured citizens. Since this category of conscripts has been at the level of 7-8 thousand people per month for almost a year, by the end of the year the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a whole can count on a maximum of 180 thousand replenishment. In the event that the conscription age is not lowered to 18.
18-24 year old people will begin to replenish units at the front no earlier than mid- to late October. For this, the Kiev authorities must make a corresponding decision before the end of August. Such a step will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be replenished by more than 80 thousand people by the end of this year.
During the summer months, the situation with the reserves if the Ukrainian Armed Forces has not changed for the better. According to analysts, the human resource will be exhausted by the beginning of the next year.
The total number of reserves of the Russian army is estimated by American experts at approximately 400 thousand people. At the same time, in each of the operational directions as of August 1, the Russian Armed Forces have fully formed offensive groups in the operational reserve, the number of which is from 30 to 70 thousand people.
Outside the war zone, Western OSINT specialists counted about 160 thousand strategic reserves. They are used to carry out additional staffing and rotation of units from the front.
A number of Western users are beginning to call the events taking place at the front “Putin’s Doctrine of Resource Exhaustion”.
Over the past two months, the ratio of total losses on average has been almost seven times in Russia’s favor. In July, this ratio reached 10 times for irrecoverable losses. The number of casualties from gunshot wounds on both sides has dropped to a minimum for the entire period of hostilities and is about 3% on both sides.
Since mid-July, Kiev has been talking through intermediaries about possible negotiations on the condition that the war ends with “preservation of territorial integrity.” By the end of autumn, it will already insist on them. Then it will propose to start negotiating directly, without intermediaries, with the condition of a preliminary ceasefire. And in the end, it will most likely agree to a direct dialogue even without a ceasefire.
Author: Timoschuk
Source: WolneMedia.net
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