When will cancel martial law in Ukraine?

Opublikowano: 18.12.2018 | Kategorie: International

Liczba wyświetleń wpisu: 70

December 26, well, or earlier. So say the official representatives of the Ukrainian authorities.

So far, no one is going to cancel martial law – many analysts agree in this opinion.

The official reason for the introduction of martial law in the country was the incident in the Kerch Strait on November 25. A combat clash between three Ukrainian boats took place while they were being driven from Berdyansk to Mariupol with the ships of the border guard service of Russia. As a result, Ukrainian vessels were detained and are in Russia, criminal cases were instituted against crew members.

Ukraine called the incident another fact of Russian aggression. Official representatives of the Russian Federation – a provocation from Ukrainian side.

The guilty will be determined as a result of long trials. For now the world community has taken the side of Ukraine. Heads of many states made statements that Moscow should release Ukrainian sailors and return of detained ships.

Initially, it was announced the introduction of martial law for a period of 60 days, but after negotiations with European partners, the head of state Petro Poroshenko reduced the period to 30 days.

The president and government officials have repeatedly stated that martial law can be lifted ahead of time in the absence of external threats.

The necessary conditions were announced. There are four of them. Ukraine demands from Russia to return the arrested ships and release the sailors in custody. In addition, Moscow must withdraw its units of the Armed Forces from the Ukrainian-Russian border, as well as withdraw their ships from the Sea of Azov.

The conditions put forward sound like an almost impossible ultimatum. Their implementation would mean Russia’s unconditional recognition of the fact of aggression against Ukraine. And there are far-reaching consequences (claims to international courts, claims for compensation, etc.) in this case.

Ukrainian politicians probably understand that the Kremlin is unlikely to accept these conditions. The imposed martial law does not threaten Russia, and accordingly it will follow the chosen course. And the internal situation in Ukraine suggests that most likely the introduced regime will not be canceled. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain the active rotation of military units throughout the country and the intensification of work with reservists.

The intensification of military activities is very similar to the preparations for the intensification of hostilities. And if not with Russia, then, most likely, in the Donbas.

It will come on December 26, nominated by Ukraine will not be executed. Will this be regarded by the Ukrainian leadership as an increase in the risk of an open act of aggression by the Russian Federation? Quite possible. What if by this time the events in the Donbas are also getting worse?

It turns out that the martial law is beneficial to the current Ukrainian leadership. And when it is extended, the dates of the presidential elections in Ukraine scheduled for March 2019 will be automatically postponed. Given that the current ratings of the president suggest that he may not even go to the second round of voting, not to mention winning.

During the interview with Ukrainian media, Petro Poroshenko said that he is «not worried» about his own rating on the eve of the elections. The President expressed confidence that his rating depends on Ukraine’s place in international politics.

Based on this, it is likely that martial law will be lifted as soon as the country’s international ratings rise.

And the last. Nobody openly declared that martial law could be extended. This is likely to be reported on December 26 as a Christmas present to the public.

Authorship: Vitaliy Timoschuk
Source: WolneMedia.net

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